Why did I raise the possibility that Medicaid expenditure growth in New York might slow a bit? Take a look at the trendline. Note that while expenditures actually fell in the last quarter of 2001, the big spike began shortly afterward, after 9/11, when the eligibility standards were loosened considerably.
But note also, that that in 2004 the trendline began to flatten out a bit. There are hints of a "s-curve."
Additionally, from 2000 to 2004 the number of enrollees grew dramatically rising from 2.7 million to over 4 million. (Much of that growth was in Family Health Plus.) The rate of growth was virtually identical in New York City and the rest of the state. At some point, we should expect the pool of potential clients to be exhausted.