In my last post, regarding the loss of coverage and uncompensated care, I mentioned:
As premiums rise - especially in relation to income or other economic resources - coverage falls.
The past decade at least, I've been convinced that this is the primary underlying cause of health insurance loss. Call it what you may, dress it up as much as you like, blame employers or public policy makers, coverage has simply gotten too expensive relative to the economic resources that pays for it. All you have to do is note that health care costs and therefore health coverage costs (both public and private) have been rising consistently faster than economy overall and thus the rest of the economy.
Think in terms of a ratio of coverage costs to other economic resources. Regardless of the specific measures you use, the more that ratio rises, the more people will drop out or be dropped out of the insurance system.
And as that ratio begins to cut at higher and higher income levels, it will affect an increasing proportions of the population. I don't know where the inflection point on the upslope (the left side of the peak) is in this graphic, but until we reach it, each increase in that ratio will affect an accelerating number of people. Then the rate of increase will fall, but the numbers of newly uninsured will continue to increase until we hit the peak.
Think of the Cutting Edge "Coverage Blades" in the graphic moving to the right and slicing off increasing numbers of currently insured.
Of course, when we do hit the peak, we will be deep into the middle class - being uninsured. At some point just to the left of the peak, I expect we will arrive at the political crisis and deal with the issue.
But, like earthquakes in California, while we know this crisis is coming, we don't know exactly when.