Hope for slower Medicaid growth?

Why did I raise the possibility that Medicaid expenditure growth in New York might slow a bit? Take a look at the trendline. Note that while expenditures actually fell in the last quarter of 2001, the big spike began shortly afterward, after 9/11, when the eligibility standards were loosened considerably.

But note also, that that in 2004 the trendline began to flatten out a bit. There are hints of a "s-curve."

Additionally, from 2000 to 2004 the number of enrollees grew dramatically rising from 2.7 million to over 4 million. (Much of that growth was in Family Health Plus.) The rate of growth was virtually identical in New York City and the rest of the state. At some point, we should expect the pool of potential clients to be exhausted.

Mind you, for now I'd bet against the possibility. But it's worth further exploration.

Comments

[Rick Stevens]

Thanks John.

Did anyone else familiar with the MMA / Dual Eligibles Pharmacy issue notice the similarity of the NYS chart and the MMA 'clawback' formula ?

Looks like NYS just adopted the clawback methodology and applied it to the counties as did CMS to the states. And now the states are sending checks to the Feds for the first time.

However -- everyone should know that the clawback formula was designed to ensure the Feds got checks while the states got no savings so NYS counties should be forewarned...

R-